On the heels of last week’s unanimous approval of the implementing legislation for the U.S.-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA) by the House Committee on Ways and Means, the full House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on the legislation tomorrow, November 7. The agreement is widely expected to gain passage, with the support of a substantial majority of Republicans and perhaps as many as 100 Democrats. The House Democratic leadership is hoping that a strong favorable vote from its party’s members would not only “validate” the newly-enshrined Democratic template for trade agreements announced by Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel (D-NY) earlier this year, but would also create momentum for the next trade agreements that will come before Congress, namely Colombia and Panama. The triple-digit threshold for which the Democratic leadership is striving would surpass the 75 Democratic votes in favor of the Chile free trade agreement in 2003, but will likely fall short of the 117 Democratic votes in favor of the Australia FTA in 2004.
Under trade promotion authority (“fast-track”) rules, the Senate must vote on the Peru agreement within 15 legislative days after the House vote, and it is likely that the Senate vote will occur shortly before or shortly after the Thanksgiving recess. Approval in the Senate is likewise all but guaranteed.
The Senate action will in all probability be the last trade vote on Capitol Hill in 2007. The pending free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama (and perhaps Korea, although the strong objections registered by key voting blocs on that agreement may kill it before it ever reaches the halls of Congress) will be taken up in 2008. In any case, the Administration is pushing very strongly for the Colombia agreement in particular, arguing first and foremost the national security implications if the agreement is rejected. U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab led a seven-member Congressional delegation to Colombia this past weekend, and returned urging Congress to schedule a vote on that agreement “as soon as possible.” While recognizing that Colombia is a key strategic ally in South America, a majority of Democrats remain very wary of the trade agreement citing a continuing high level of anti-union violence.
Because the Peru TPA (assuming it is approved) will not be implemented for several months, and the Colombia agreement may not even come up for a vote for several months, Ambassador Schwab also noted that the Andean Trade Preferences Act (ATPA) will require another short-term extension. Members may recall that the ATPA was extended this past June for a period of eight-months, and is currently set to expire after February 2008. Ambassador Schwab expressed another short-term extension more in terms of “how long” rather than “if.” It appears highly unlikely that Congress will balk on an ATPA extension with regard to Peru and Colombia. However, Bolivia and Ecuador are in a different situation altogether as those two countries have not negotiated FTAs with the U.S. and may well end up losing their preferential status by early next year.
We will continue to keep Members closely advised.
